On the morning of 3rd November, the British High Court ruled that Theresa May cannot trigger Article 50, the legal route to Brexit, without parliament first having a vote. Given the opaque nature with which exit negotiations have so far been conducted by the prime minister, this ruling presents a significant setback.
This decision may yet be reversed when the government appeals the case to the Supreme Court next month. Likewise, if the ruling is preserved, it is by no means certain that parliament would rule against the referendum result- thus blocking Brexit entirely- despite the fact that around 70 per cent of MPs voted to remain in the EU. The legal action was filed by a group of individuals, and led by investment manager Gina Miller.
The High Court’s ruling is of great significance regardless of what is to come. It gives momentum to both politicians and citizens who seek more transparency, debate and democracy in Britain’s exit strategy from the EU. The value of sterling began to improve almost immediately after the ruling, as it rose 2 percent against the euro to €1.1288 on the same day. Critics of May suggest that she should speak more openly ahead of negotiations with Britain’s EU partners as there are several options Britain can explore once legally exiting the trading bloc.
A new report by Brexit research group The UK in a Changing Europe has outlined six such options which are illustrated below. Both ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ Brexit options appear challenging at present. A ‘soft’ Brexit strategy, ascertaining to the Norwegian model appears less economically risky but the financial contribution would remain despite the fact that the Remain camp boasted that Britain would be free of a membership fee once exiting the EU. Also, EU officials have stated the inextricable connection between access to the single market and free movement of labor, thus Theresa May has refuted the option of a soft exit.
A ‘hard’ Brexit could impact trade opportunities for Britain, as it may call the UK’s membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Once it exits the EU, the UK may have to reapply to the WTO, and may very well face far higher tariffs in comparison to its current membership. Although its consequences remain unclear, this High Court ruling has deepened the debate on Article 50 and may postpone significant political decisions.
For more info please contact daisy.higgins@bordbia.ie
Source: Bord Bia – British Court Rules That Brexit Must Face a Parliamentary Vote
